14 billion bushel corn crop forecast, 858 million above record

By Susanne Retka Schill | July 11, 2013

Even after factoring in reduced beginning stocks for the upcoming corn marketing year and the lower forecasted harvested acres following the acreage report, the USDA July 11 supply/demand report is projecting U.S. corn production 858 million bushels above the record set in 2009-’10. World corn stocks are expected to be the highest since 2001-’02.

The USDA report left the projected yield unchanged from the previous month at 156.5 bushels per acre, resulting in a total projected production just below 14 billion bushels, down 55 million bushels from last month’s report.

Corn supplies for 2013-’14 are down further, however, lowered 90 million bushels as a 5-million-bushel increase in imports only partly offsets the lower beginning stocks and production. This month’s changes to corn use for 2012-’13 and 2013-’14 largely reflect the lateness of the 2013 crop and expectations for extremely tight supplies later this summer and into early fall.

Feed and residual disappearance for 2012-’13 is raised 50 million bushels as early harvest of new-crop corn is expected to be sharply reduced from last year. Ethanol use projections remained unchanged from the previous month’s report at 4.9 billion bushels, up from the estimated 4.65 billion bushels for 2012-’13 and down from the 5.01 billion bushels used in 2011-’12.

A 10-million-bushel increase in projected imports for 2012-’13 also reflects the tight supply situation expected for old-crop corn during the summer quarter. Imports for 2013-’14 are raised because the tight supply situation is expected to continue into September. Feed and residual use for 2013-’14 is lowered 50 million bushels with tighter beginning stocks and lower production, and also on the lack of early new-crop usage which tends to boost indicated disappearance during the September-December quarter of the new marketing year.

Projected exports for 2013-’14 are lowered 50 million bushels as tight supplies of corn in early September are expected to limit early season shipments. With lower projected use in 2013-’14, ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels and remain just under 2 billion bushels. The projected 2013-’14 season-average farm price for corn is unchanged at $4.40 to $5.20 per bushel. The 2013-’14 other feed grain farm price projections are also unchanged.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013-’14 are projected 3.6 million tons lower with 2.9 million tons of the decline resulting from the tighter supply situation for corn and sorghum in the United States.

Foreign coarse grain supply and use changes this month are relatively small in the aggregate. Corn beginning stocks for 2013-’14 are lowered for Brazil with higher 2012-’13 exports and for Indonesia with lower 2012-’13 production. China corn production for 2013-’14 is lowered 1.0 million tons on lower indicated area. European Union corn production is increased 1.8 million tons when adjusted for this month’s inclusion of Croatia, however, last month’s 27-member union is lowered 0.4 million tons.

Global 2013-’14 coarse grain trade is mostly unchanged this month with exports down slightly on the reduction for U.S. corn. Global corn consumption is down 2.6 million tons with half of the reduction in the United States. Corn consumption is also lowered for Indonesia. Global corn ending stocks for 2013-’14 are projected at 151.0 million tons, down 0.9 million, with reductions for Brazil and China. World corn stocks are expected to be the highest since 2001-’02.