Genscape predicts corn supply of at least 12.6 billion bushels

By Genscape | August 08, 2013

On Aug. 6, the Genscape LandViewer team released its corn supply predictions to clients, putting the corn supply to at least 12.6 billion bushels. The LandViewer team is not ready to commit to the 14 billion bushels anticipated by the USDA or other predictions as high as 14.3 billion bushels made by other crop advisory groups.

“For the supply to meet the high predictions from groups like the USDA, contributions from historically highly productive county-clusters would be necessary, and that doesn’t seem likely,” said Steffen Mueller, senior director of Genscape’s LandViewer group.

These traditionally highly productive county-clusters, such as many counties in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, show severe problems this year. In addition to modeling analysis, the LandViewer team has conducted multiple ground verification trips and has surmised that these problem areas will not likely recover to the level necessary to help the country meet the USDA’s total supply estimate. In addition, the national corn crop is an average of three weeks behind, and it will have much higher risk for frost exposure.

Red areas show the problem zones in northern Iowa and southern Minnesota, as well as southwestern Illinois where weather events resulted in uneven planting and crop not going into the ground.2

LandViewer’s highly accurate prediction is based on a high resolution geospatial data model combined with extensive ground truthing. Using satellite technology, LandViewer has developed a spatial-based algorithm to predict corn supply on a parcel-by-parcel basis. Corn yield and supply predictions for each of the monitored 1,100 counties were shared with clients on Aug. 6, a week in advance of the USDA reports. The information is useful for grain buyers to master local supply shortages or surpluses. For national grain investors, the LandViewer parcel-by-parcel platform has also proven to be a useful tool to identify risk associated with isolated county clusters.