USDA projects 154.4 bu/acre for 13.8 billion bushel corn crop

By Susanne Retka Schill | August 12, 2013

The USDA’s monthly supply/demand estimates pegs to the 2013/14 corn crop 187 million bushels lower than last month’s report at 13.8 billion bushels, accounting for its first survey-based corn yield forecast for the season of 154.4 bushels per acre, down 2.1 bushels from the previous month. 

Corn beginning stocks for 2013/14 are projected 10 million bushels lower with a 15-million-bushel increase in 2012/13 exports only partly offset by a 5-million-bushel increase in imports. Feed and residual use for 2013/14 is lowered 50 million bushels this month with the smaller crop. Ethanol use remains unchanged from the previous month at 4.9 billion bushels, which is up from last year’s estimated use of 4.65 billion, but below the 5.01 billion bushels used in the 2011/12 marketing year. Exports are projected 25 million bushels lower with reduced domestic supplies and increased foreign competition.

Ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 122 million bushels lower. The projected season-average farm price for corn is raised 10 cents at both ends of the range to $4.50 to $5.30 per bushel. Prices received by farmers are expected to remain above cash bid levels through the fall as producers who forward-priced corn earlier in the year support the weighted average farm-gate price.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 2.9 million tons lower as the reduction in the United States more than offsets an increase in foreign supplies. Global 2013/14 corn production is lowered 2.7 million tons. In addition to the United States, corn production is lowered for Mexico, the European Union, Russia and Serbia. Partly offsetting are increases for Ukraine, India and Turkey.

Ukraine production is raised 3.0 million tons as higher reported area combines with favorable July temperatures to raise production prospects. Production is raised 1.0 million tons for India as favorable monsoon rainfall supports increased plantings and a higher yield outlook. Turkey corn production is raised 0.4 million tons with higher area and higher expected yields.

Global 2013/14 corn trade is raised with increased imports projected for Mexico, South Korea, the European Union and Egypt. Corn exports are projected higher for Ukraine, but partly offset by declines for Russia, the European Union and the United States. Corn trade is also increased for 2012/13 with higher imports for Egypt, South Korea, Turkey, the European Union and Indonesia.

Exports for 2012/13 are raised for Brazil and Argentina. Supporting the increase in Brazil export prospects, particularly over the next few months, is a 3.0-million-ton increase in 2012/13 corn production. Global corn consumption for 2013/14 is projected 2.3 million tons lower. Reduced U.S. feed and residual use is only partly offset by increases for South Korea, Ukraine, and Egypt. Global corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 0.8 million tons lower with the increases for Ukraine, India and Brazil, mostly offsetting the reduction projected for the United States.