EIA revises 2014 ethanol production forecast in October STEO

By Erin Voegele | October 09, 2013

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has published the October issue of its Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook (STEO), noting that the ethanol industry is beginning to show some recovery from last year’s drought.

The EIA said ethanol production averaged 850,000 barrels per day in September, and is forecast to increase to an average of 880,000 barrels per day in 2014. The EIA has reduced its forecast since the September STEO was published, which predicted that ethanol production would average 890,000 barrels per day next year. Ethanol production fell from an average of 900,000 barrels per day during the first half of 2012, averaging 820,000 barrels per day from July 2012 through March 2013.

On a quarterly basis, EIA data shows ethanol production is expected to average 870,000 barrels per day during the fourth quarter of this year, before increasing to an average of 880,000 barrels per day in the first quarter of 2014. After rising to an average of 890,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, the EIA predicts production will drop to an average of 880,000 barrels per day during the third and fourth quarters of next year.

According to the STEO, the EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to average $107 per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2103, dropping to $102 per barrel next year. The U.S. weekly average regular gasoline retail price fell by 18 cents during September, dropping to $3.43 per gallon by the end of the month. Prices are expected to average $3.34 per gallon during the fourth quarter of this year, with the average 2013 cost expected to be $3.52 per gallon. In 2014, gasoline is expected to average $3.40 per gallon.