EIA increases 2014 ethanol forecast in January STEO

By Erin Voegele | January 09, 2014

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the January issue of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, slightly increasing its forecast for 2014 ethanol production.

In the December issue of its STEO, the EIA indicated the U.S. biofuels industry had recovered from the 2012 drought and predicted ethanol production would average 900,000 barrels per day in 2014. In the new STEO, released Jan. 7, the EIA increased that prediction, estimating that ethanol production would average 913,000 barrels per day in 2014.

In December 2013, ethanol production averaged 920,000 barrels per day, up from 825,000 barrels per day in December 2012. 

On a quarterly basis, EIA indicates ethanol production is expected to average 910,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2014, increasing to an average of 920,000 in the second and third quarters, before dropping to 910,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

In 2015, the EIA predicts ethanol production will average approximately 920,000 barrels per day.

Biodiesel production is forecast to average 84,000 barrels per day in 2014 and 2015, down slightly from the 87,000 barrel per day average achieved in 2013. In 2012, biodiesel production averaged only 64,000 barrels per day.

The EIA also predicts gasoline prices will fall in 2014 and 2015. The annual average regular gasoline retail price was $3.51 per gallon in 2013. That price is expected to fall to $3.46 per gallon in 2014 and $3.39 per gallon in 2015.

The EIA’s most recent weekly ethanol plant production data indicates that 919,000 barrels per day of ethanol was produced the week of Jan. 3, up slightly from 913,000 barrels per day the prior week.