2013 corn crop adjusted down slightly, global projections up

By Susanne Retka Schill | January 10, 2014

With the harvest complete and actual numbers replacing estimates, the USDA increased the harvested acres for corn by 436,000 acres and lowered the yield to 158.8 bushels per acre, reducing the figure for total production to 13.9 billion bushels. With the Dec. 1 stocks estimate giving a more solid number for feed and residual use, the monthly supply/demand report raised projected corn use for the current marketing year by 100 million bushels. The projection for corn use for ethanol was also raised 50 million bushels, putting the projected total at 5 billion bushels as compared to 4.65 billion bushels estimated for last year and 5 billion used in the 2011/12 marketing year. Projections for foreign corn production were raised 4.3 million tons, mostly due to higher China production.

To view the complete report with accompanying tables, read here. The text of the coarse grains section from the Jan. 10, USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates follows:

U.S. feed grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected lower with reduced production estimated for corn and sorghum. Harvested area for corn is raised 436,000 acres, but the estimated yield is lowered 1.6 bushels per acre to 158.8, reducing production 64 million bushels to 13.9 billion. Sorghum harvested area is lowered 148,000 acres and the yield is lowered 2.6 bushels per acre, reducing production 27 million bushels. Projected corn use for 2013/14 is raised with feed and residual use projected up 100 million bushels based on September-November disappearance as indicated by the December 1 stocks estimate. Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 50 million bushels reflecting continued strong weekly ethanol production, a reduction in expected sorghum use for ethanol, and higher forecast 2014 gasoline consumption in the latest projections from the Energy Information Administration.

 

A 50-million-bushel reduction in other food, seed, and industrial use offsets the increase in use for ethanol. Corn ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected 161 million bushels lower at 1.6 billion. The projected 2013/14 season-average farm price for corn is unchanged at the midpoint with the range narrowed to $4.10 to $4.70 per bushel. Other 2013/14 feed grain changes include increases in projected feed and residual disappearance for sorghum and oats, but a reduction for barley as indicated by December 1 stocks. Sorghum exports are projected 20 million bushels lower as higher indicated September-November disappearance limits exportable supplies. Sorghum food, seed, and industrial use is also lowered 20 million bushels.

 

Global coarse grain supplies for 2013/14 are projected 1.2 million tons higher despite this month’s reduction in U.S. production and a 1.9-million-ton decrease in global beginning stocks. Higher 2012/13 corn exports for Brazil reduce beginning stocks for 2013/14. Global barley production for 2013/14 is raised 1.6 million tons with increases for the European Union, Argentina, and Russia. Foreign corn production is raised 4.3 million tons with higher China production. China corn production is raised