June WASDE report maintains prediction of record corn crop

By Erin Voegele | June 11, 2014

The USDA has released the June issue of its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, maintaining its prediction that 2014-’15 corn production will be a record 13.935 billion bushels. The projected U.S. corn yield remains at 165.3 bushels per acre as a slightly slower-than-normal mid-May planting progress is expected to be offset by very favorable early season crop and weather conditions.

Within the WASDE report, the USDA indicates that its most recent Crop Progress report is the best in four years for the aggregated 18 reported states, and better than any time since 2007 for the corn belt. The most recent Crop Progress report, released June 9, shows 92 percent of corn emerged as of the week ending June 8, up from 80 percent the prior week. The 2009-2013 average is 90 percent. The report noted that as of June 8, 15 percent of the corn crop was in excellent condition, 60 percent in good condition, 21 percent in fair condition, 3 percent in poor condition and 1 percent in very poor condition. 

The June 11 WASDE report projected range for the 2014-’15 season-average farm price is unchanged at $3.85 to $4.55 per bushel and below this  month’s lower projected 2013-’14 range of $4.45 to $4.65 per bushel. The 2013-’14 price range is lowered 10 cents per bushel at the midpoint based on prices reported to date and the recent decline in nearby cash and futures prices.

The report predicts 2014-’15 coarse grains supplies will be 2.3 million tons higher, mostly with larger corn beginning stocks and production. Global corn production for 2014-’15 is raised 2 million tons with increase for Ukraine, the European Union, and Russia. According to the WASDE report, global 2014-’15 coarse grain trade is mostly unchanged this month, with the exception of small increase in corn and barely imports for Turkey. Global corn consumption is raised 1.8 million tons and global corn ending stocks for 2014-’15 are projected 900,000 tons higher.