EIA increases 2014, 2015 ethanol production forecasts

By Erin Voegele | June 13, 2014

The U.S. Energy Administration has released the June issue of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, increasing its forest for ethanol production to an average of 920,000 barrels per day this year. Last month, the EIA forecasted that 2014 production would average 911,000 barrels per day.

According to the EIA, ethanol production increased from an average of 907,000 barrels per day in March to 926,000 barrels per day in May, the highest level of the year.

Moving into 2015, ethanol production is expected to average 935,000 barrels per day. In its May STEO, the EIA predicted 2015 production would average 922,000 barrels per day.

The report indicates that biodiesel production has recovered from its recently low of 56,000 barrels per day in January, reaching 75,000 barrels per day in March. Biodiesel production averaged 89,000 barrels per day last year and is expected to average 81,000 barrels per day this year and 84,000 barrels per day in 2015.

During the April-through-September driving season, the EIA forecasts regular gasoline will average $3.62 per gallon, 4 cents higher than last year. The projected monthly national average regular gasoline retail price is expected to fall from a high of $3.67 per gallon in May to $3.54 per gallon in September. Regular gasoline is expected to average $3.50 per gallon this year and $3.38 per gallon next year. In 2013, gasoline averaged $3.51 per gallon.

The EIA’s most recent weekly ethanol production statistics show that production averaged 944,000 barrels per day the week of June 6, up from a 938,000 barrel per day average the prior week. The U.S. exported an estimated 2.14 million barrels of ethanol in March, up from nearly 1.61 million barrels in February. EIA data shows the U.S. imported only 74,000 barrels of ethanol in March, up from 44,000 barrels in February.