FAPRI releases updated agricultural, ethanol projections

By Erin Voegele | September 03, 2014

The University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute has published a mid-year update to its baseline agricultural report, which was prepared in January. The update includes revised forecasts for ethanol and corn.

FAPRI now predicts ethanol production will reach 14.28 billion gallons this year, with 13.96 billion gallons of that coming from corn and 323 million gallons coming from other feedstocks. About 1 million gallons of cellulosic ethanol is expected to be produced this year. According to the report, 81 million gallons of ethanol is expected to be imported this year, with 874 million gallons exported.

Next year, ethanol production is expected to reach 14.38 billion gallons, with nearly 15.04 billion gallons of production by 2019. Approximately 14.04 billion gallons of corn ethanol is expected to be produced next year, with 336 million gallons from other feedstock and 6 million gallons from cellulosic feedstocks. Imports are expected to be 78 million gallons, with exports at 721 million gallons. By 2019, the U.S. is expected to produce nearly 14.59 billion gallons of corn ethanol, with 344 million gallons coming from other feedstocks, and 107 million gallons of cellulosic production. In 2019, FAPRI predicts imports will total 77 million gallons, with exports at 908 million gallons.

Approximately 13.28 billion gallons of ethanol is expected to be used in low-level blends this year, with 16 million gallons in mid-level blends and 178 million in flex fuel vehicles. By 2019, about 12.72 billion gallons is expected to be used in low-level blends, with 960 million gallons used in mid-level blends and 780 million gallons in flex fuel vehicles.

Ethanol retail prices are expected to average approximately $2.42 per gallon this year, dropping to $2.19 per gallon in 2019. Retail gasoline prices are expected to average $3.48 per gallon this year, increasing to $3.63 per gallon in 2019.

Renewable identification number (RIN) values for conventional ethanol are expected to average 51 cents per gallon this year, fall to 20 cents per gallon in 2015, and gradually rise to 42 cents per gallon in 2019. RIN prices for other advanced ethanol are expected to be comparable.

Corn planted area is expected to be 91.6 million acres for the 2014-’15 year, with yields expected to reach 167.4 bushels per harvested acre. Total production is expected to be 14.03 billion bushels. Of the 11.75 billion bushels used domestically, 5.121 billion bushels are expected to go to ethanol and coproduct production.

During the 2019-’20 crop year, 92.3 million acres of corn are expected to be planted, with yields averaging 169.2 bushels per harvested acre. Total production is expected to be 14.25 billion bushels. Of the 12.04 billion bushels used domestically, 5.35 billion bushels is expected to be used for ethanol and coproduct production.

A full copy of the report can be downloaded from the FAPRI website.