EIA predicts increased ethanol production in 2015

By Erin Voegele | November 14, 2014

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has published the November issue of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, predicting that ethanol production will average 934,000 barrels per day next year.

According to the EIA, ethanol production in June matched the monthly average production record of 959,000 barrels per day set in December 2011, before falling back to average 911,000 barrels per day in October. EIA currently predicts 2014 production will average 927,000 barrels per day this year, increasing to 934,000 barrels per day next year. The 2015 forecast is slightly above the 933,000 barrel per day forecast made in the October issue of the STEO

Biodiesel production averaged 89,000 barrels per day last year, and is expected to fall to an average of 80,000 barrels per day this year. In 2015, production is expected to increase to an average of 84,000 barrels per day.

Gasoline prices averaged $2.99 per gallon on Nov. 3, which the EIA says is the lowest level since Dec. 20, 2010. Regular gasoline retail prices are expected to continue to decline for the remainder of the year, falling to $2.80 per gallon in December, a forecast that is 33 cents per gallon lower than the forecast made by EIA in the October STEO. Gasoline prices averaged $3.51 per gallon last year, and are expected to average $3.39 per gallon this year before falling to an average of $2.94 per gallon in 2015.

The EIA’s most recent weekly ethanol production statistics show production averaged 946,000 barrels per day the week of Nov. 7, up slightly from 929,000 barrels the prior week. The U.S. exported an estimated 1.29 million barrels of ethanol in August. The EIA’s most recent import data indicates the U.S. imported 9,000 barrels of ethanol in August.