EIA increases 2015 ethanol production forecast

By Erin Voegele | February 11, 2015

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has published the February issue of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, reporting ethanol production is expected to average 938,000 barrels per day this year.

According to the EIA, ethanol production reached a new record monthly average of 978,000 barrels per day in December, with production in January estimated to be 969,000 barrels per day. Ethanol production averaged 933,000 barrels per day last year, and is currently expected to average 938,000 barrels per day in 2015.

The forecasted 2015 average made by EIA in the February STEO is up slightly from the forecasted 936,000 barrel per day average made in the January STEO. The forecast for 2016 production is down slightly, however, from 937,000 barrels per day forecasted in the January STEO to 936,000 barrels per day forecasted in the February STEO.

Biodiesel production averaged approximately 80,000 barrels per day last year and is expected to average 84,000 barrels per day this year and in 2016.

According to the U.S. EIA, U.S. weekly regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.04 per gallon on Jan. 26, the lowest since April 6, 2009. Prices increased to $2.19 per gallon on Feb. 9. EIA expects gasoline prices, which averaged $3.36 per gallon last year, to average $2.33 per gallon this year, increasing to $2.73 per gallon next year.

EIA’s most recent weekly data indicates ethanol production averaged 948,000 barrels per day the week ending Jan. 30, down from 978,000 barrels per day the week ending Jan. 23. Imports reached 33,000 barrels in November, with 25,000 barrels of that coming from Brazil and 8,000 barrels from Canada. In October, only 30,000 barrels of ethanol were imported into the U.S, including 6,000 barrels from Canada and 24,000 barrels from Singapore. U.S. ethanol exports reached nearly 2.17 million barrels in November, up from nearly 1.89 million barrels in October. India, Canada, Brazil, South Korea and Philippines were among the top importers of U.S. ethanol in November.

A full copy of the February STEO can be downloaded from the EIA’s website