WASDE projects corn use for ethanol higher by 25 million bushels

By Susanne Retka Schill | December 09, 2015

USDA made small changes to its corn supply and demand projections in its last monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report for the calendar year, mostly due to ethanol.

U.S. corn use for ethanol production in 2015-’16 is projected 25 million bushels higher based on the stronger-than-expected pace of ethanol production during November as indicated by weekly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. EIA also raised its forecasts for 2015 and 2016 gasoline consumption in the December Short-term Energy Outlook.

Overall, projected U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2015-’16 are raised slightly this month. Corn exports for 2015-’16 are projected 50 million bushels lower, reflecting the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and higher projected exports for Brazil and Canada. U.S. corn ending stocks are projected 25 million bushels higher at 1,785 million bushels.

The projected range for the season-average corn farm price is unchanged at $3.35 to $3.95 per bushel, in line with prices reported to date and current futures price levels. The sorghum farm price range is lowered 10 cents on each end to $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, reflecting the latest reported prices through October and continued weakness in interior cash sorghum bids. 

Global coarse grain supplies for 2015-’16 are projected lower this month with global corn production lowered 1.0 million tons. Corn production is lowered 1.5 million tons for India with reduced area and yield prospects as a result of limited monsoon rainfall.  South Africa corn production is lowered 0.8 million tons as October and November dryness has significantly delayed plantings in the higher-yielding eastern growing areas, thus reducing yield prospects. Partly offsetting these reductions is a 1.3-million-ton increase for Canada corn based on the latest official production estimates from Statistics Canada.

 

Global coarse grain consumption for 2015-’16 is lowered slightly. Global corn consumption is lowered 1.0 million tons mostly reflecting lower use in India and Taiwan.  Corn use is increased for EU and Chile. World corn trade for 2015-’16 is lowered with imports reduced for Canada and Taiwan.

 

Corn exports are lowered for the United States, India, and South Africa, but raised for Canada. Brazil corn exports for 2014-’15 (March 2015 through February 2016) are raised 1.0 million tons to a record 32.0 million putting additional pressure on 2015-’16 U.S. corn exports (September 2015 through August 2016). Global corn ending stocks for 2015-’16 are nearly unchanged with higher projected stocks for the United States and Canada offset by lower projected stocks for Brazil and EU.