EIA revises short-term ethanol forecast in June outlook

By Erin Voegele | June 08, 2016

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the June edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, predicting ethanol production will average approximately 980,000 barrels per day this year and next year. In the May STEO, the EIA said it expected ethanol production to range from 970,000 to 980,000 barrels per day over the same time period. Production averaged approximately 970,000 barrels per day last year.

Ethanol consumption averaged 910,000 barrels per day last year. Consumption is expected to increase to approximately 930,000 barrels per day this year and next year. According to EIA, this level of consumption results in the ethanol share of the total gasoline pool averaging 10 percent in both 2016 and 2017. The EIA indicated it does not expect significant increases in E15 or E85 consumption over the forecast period.

Biodiesel production averaged 82,000 barrels per day last year and is expected to increase to 100,000 barrels per day this year and 106,000 barrels per day next year. Net imports of biomass-based diesel are expected to increase from 29,000 barrels per day in 2015 to 41,000 barrels per day in 2016 and 47,000 barrels per day in 2017.

U.S. regular gasoline prices are expected to average $2.7 per gallon during the April-through-September summer driving season, 6 cents per gallon higher than forecast in the May STEO, but 36 cents per gallon lower than last summer. U.S. gasoline retail prices are expected to average $2.13 per gallon this year and $2.27 per gallon next year.

EIA’s most recent weekly ethanol production data indicates production averaged 1.006 million barrels per day the week of June 3, up from 960,000 barrels per day the prior week. The administration’s most recent monthly data shows ethanol imports reached only 2,000 in March, with exports at 2.27 million barrels during the same month.