USDA revises corn outlook in October WASDE report

By Erin Voegele | October 13, 2016

The USDA Office of Chief Economist has released the October edition of its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, predicting lower production for corn, with increased exports, reduced stocks and higher prices.

Corn production is forecast at 15.057 billion bushels, down 36 million from the previous month due to lower forecast yield that more than offsets an increase in harvested area. According to the report, corn supplies for 2016-’17 are down slightly to 16.845 billion bushels, as a lower crop more than offsets a small increase in beginning stocks based on the USDA’s Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report.

Within the report, the USDA indicates it has maintained its September WASDE projection that 5.275 billion bushels of corn will go to the production of ethanol and byproducts in 2016-’17, up from an estimated 5.206 billion bushels in 2015-’16 and 5.2 billion bushels in 2014-’15.

The forecast for exports has been increased 50 billion bushels, reflecting current U.S. export commitments that are well above a year ago. Corn ending stocks are also down 63 million bushels. In addition, the projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel.

Brazil’s corn production is forecasted up on higher area, based on a recently report predicting a forecast level of first crop corn area above prior expectations. In the EU, corn production is lowered. Corn exports are raised for Brazil and Argentina, with larger projected supplies in the former and an expected increase in the relative competitiveness of both countries for the local marketing year that begins March 2017. Other large month-to-month increases in corn imports are forecast for Iran, Vietnam and Mexico. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2016-’17 are lowered 1 million tons, with the largest stock declines in Argentina and Ukraine. Global corn stocks are projected 2.7 million tons lower to 216.8 million, but are still record high.