Q3 RINs update suggests sufficient supplies for all but D3

By Susanne Retka Schill | November 14, 2016

While earlier quarterly updates suggested potential deficits of renewable identification numbers (RINs) to use for showing compliance with the 2016 mandate targets, the pace of RIN generation has increased, writes University of Illinois economist Nick Paulson in a recent 2016 3rd Quarter RIN Update published in the FarmDoc Daily.

“Updated projections for net generation continue to suggest a deficit of 50 million to 60 million RINs available to meet the 230 million gallons cellulosic mandate,” Paulson found.  Though cellulosic D3 RINs are likely to fall short, projections indicate that D3 (renewable diesel), D5 (advanced) and D6 (conventional renewable fuel, primarily corn ethanol) will be sufficient.

In his analysis, Paulson reviews previous quarterly updates, bringing them up to date with most recent RIN generation figures, combined with RIN retirement data from EMTS, ethanol and biodiesel export data. 

Because the renewable volume obligations are actually percentage-based target, the actual required RIN amounts for D4, D5 and D6 RINs are likely to exceed the U.S. EPA’s 2016 targets as expressed in gallons, Paulson added. “With lower crude oil prices, fuel consumption in the U.S. has been surpassing the EPA estimates upon which the percentage-based renewable volume obligations (RVO) applied to obligated parties were based. This will tend to increase the actual mandate volumes above the targets outlined in the rulemaking.”  To see the complete update, click here.