December WASDE maintains 2016-’17 corn supply, use forecasts

By Erin Voegele | December 12, 2016

The USDA recently published the December edition of its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, announcing no changes have been made to the 2016-’17 corn supply and use projections.

The projected corn use for ethanol was maintained at 5.3 billion bushels for 2016-’17, up from an estimated 5.206 billion bushels in 2015-’16 and 5.2 billion bushels in 2014-’15.

Forecast U.S. corn exports are unchanged from November, despite a sales and shipment pace that is well above last year. The report explains that in recent years, early-season U.S. corn export commitments have not been a robust indicator of final exports, and it is expected that the U.S. will likely face strong competition from South America beginning in the first part of 2017.

The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents on both ends to $3.05 and $3.65 per bushel, on continued higher-than-expected early-season prices.

China corn production is increased. Corn production for Brazil is also raised on increases in both area and yield, which, if realized, would be record-high. In addition, Canada corn production is raised, along with corn production in Indonesia.

Larger projected corn exports are expected for Brazil and Russia. Notable increases in corn imports are forecast for Vietnam, Iran, Taiwan, Colombia and Egypt. Partly offsetting are reductions in projected imports for Canada, the EU and Indonesia. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2016-’17 are raised 4.1 million tons this month, with the largest stock increases projected for China, Vietnam, Brazil and Russia.

The 2016-’17 projection for grain sorghum use for ethanol is raised 5 billion bushels. No other changes were made to grain sorghum supply or use, with forecast ending stocks lowered 5 million bushels when compared to November. Grain sorghum prices for 2016-’17 are projected to average $2.80 to $3.30 per bushel, down 10 cents on the high end of the range.