USDA increases 2017-‘18 corn production estimates in July WASDE

By Erin Voegele | July 12, 2017

The USDA has released the July edition of its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, predicting larger corn supplies, greater feed and residual use and higher ending stocks for 2017-’18. The report raises corn beginning stocks by 75 million bushels, reflecting lower feed and residual use in 2016-’17. Corn production for 2017-’18 is projected 190 million bushels higher based on increased planted and harvested areas. The national average corn yield is unchanged at 170.7 bushels per acre.

According to the USDA harvested area-weighted precipitation for the major corn producing states was below normal in June, but did not represent an extreme deviation from average. For much of the crop, the critical pollination period will be during middle and late July. 

In the WASDE report, the USDA said the projected feed and residual use for 2017-’18 is raised 50 million bushels on larger crop and lower expected prices. With other use categories unchanged, corn ending stocks are raised 215 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint, for a range of $2.90 to $3.70 per bushels with the larger carryout.

The report also indicates EU corn production is down, reflecting a lower projection for Spain, where heat and dryness during grain fill hurt yield prospects. For 2016-’17, Argentina corn production is raised based on the latest information indicating a higher-than-expected level of area. In addition, the WASDE report states reduced corn exports are expected for the EU and Tanzania. Foreign corn ending stocks area raised from last month, with the largest increases in Vietnam, Mexico and Argentina.