USDA reduces corn production forecast in August WASDE

By Erin Voegele | August 10, 2017

The USDA has released the August edition of its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, slightly reducing its forecast for corn production.

The August 2017-’18 corn outlook is for lower supplies, reduced feed and residual use and exports, along with a decline in ending stocks.

The USDA said corn production is forecast to reach 14.2 billion bushels, down 102 million bushels from the July projection. 

The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast is 169.5 bushels per acre, 1.2 bushels lower than the trend-based production made in July. South Dakota, Iowa, Minnesota and Illinois are expected to have yields below last year. Projected yield in Indiana is unchanged from last year, while Nebraska and Ohio are forecast to be higher.

The projected range for the season-average corn price received by producers in unchanged at $2.90 to $3.70 per bushel.

EU corn production is reduced, while Canadian corn production is down on lower projected harvest area. The corn production forecast for Russia is raised, and Ukraine corn production is unchanged as a reduction in production yield is offset by increased area. For 2016-’17, corn production is increased for Brazil based on second crop corn harvest results to date.

According to the report, 2017-’18 corn export forecasts are reduced for the EU, Serbia and Canada and increased for Ukraine and Russia. Brazil’s corn exports are raised for 2016-’17 based on record-high shipments observed for the local marketing year beginning in March 2017. Corn imports for 2017-’18 are raised, mostly reflecting increases for the EU and Iran. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised from July.