EIA maintains 2019 ethanol production forecast

By Erin Voegele | April 10, 2018

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the April edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, maintaining its previous 2019 ethanol production forecast, but slightly lowering the production forecast for 2018.

The EIA currently predicts ethanol production will average 1.03 million barrels per day this year, increasing to 1.05 million barrels per day next year. In its March STEO, the EIA predicted ethanol production would average 1.04 million barrels per day in 2018, increasing to 1.05 million barrels per day in 2019.

On a quarterly basis, EIA’s data shows ethanol production averaged 1.04 million barrels per day during the first quarter of this year. Production is currently expected to fall to 1.02 million barrels per day during the second quarter, before increasing to 1.03 million barrels per day during the third and fourth quarters of 2018. In 2019, production is currently expected to reach 1.04 million barrels per day during the first quarter, increasing to 1.05 million barrels per day during the second, third and fourth quarters.

Within the April STEO, the EIA also predicts that 960,000 barrels per day of ethanol will be blended into motor gasoline this year, up from 940,000 barrels per day last year. In 2019, blending is expected to be maintained at 960,000 barrels per day.

The EIA’s most recent weekly ethanol production data shows production averaged 1.038 million barrels per day the week ending March 30, down from 1.039 million barrels per day the previous week.

The EIA’s most recent monthly ethanol data shows the U.S. imported 496,000 barrels of ethanol in November, all from Brazil. The U.S. exported 2.104 million barrels of ethanol in January, primarily to Brazil, Canada and South Korea.