EIA maintains 2019, 2020 ethanol production forecasts

By Erin Voegele | March 15, 2019

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the March edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, maintaining its February forecasts for 2019 and 2020 ethanol production. Ethanol consumption forecasts for both years are also unchanged.

The EIA currently predicts ethanol production will average 1.04 million barrels per day in 2019, increasing to 1.05 million barrels per day in 2020. Production averaged 1.05 million barrels per day last year.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1.03 million barrels per day during the first quarter of this year, increasing to 1.05 million barrels per day during the second quarter, and then fall to 1.04 million barrels per day during the third and fourth quarters. In 2020, the EIA predicts ethanol production will average 1.04 million barrels per day during the first quarter, increase to 1.06 million barrels per day during the second quarter, and then fall to 1.05 million barrels per day during the third quarter, before returning to 1.04 million barrels per day during the final quarter of the year.

 The EIA currently predicts ethanol consumption will average 950,000 barrels per day in both 2019 and 2020, up from 940,000 barrels per day in 2018.

The EIA’s most recent weekly ethanol data shows production averaged 1.005 million barrels per day the week ending March 8, down from 1.024 million barrels per day the previous week. Stocks of ethanol fell to 23.731 million barrels the week ending March 8, down from 24.261 million barrels the previous week.

The agency’s most recent monthly data shows the U.S. imported 255,000 barrels of ethanol in December, all from Brazil. The U.S. exported 3.33 million barrels of ethanol during the same month, primarily to Brazil, Canada, and the United Arab Emirates.