EIA increases 2019, 2020 ethanol production forecasts

By Erin Voegele | June 14, 2019

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released the latest edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook June 11, increasing its forecasts for 2019 and 2020 ethanol production. The agency now predicts ethanol production will average 1.04 million barrels per day this year and 1.05 million barrels per day next year. Production averaged 1.05 million barrels per day in 2018.

The June forecasts represent an increase over production levels predicted by EIA last month. In its May STEO, the EIA predicted 2019 ethanol production would average 1.03 million barrels per day, with 2020 production increasing to an average of 1.04 million barrels per day.  

On a quarterly basis, the EIA currently predicts ethanol production will average 1.05 million barrels per day during the second quarter of this year, falling to 1.04 million barrels per day during the third and fourth quarters. In 2020, production is expected to average 1.04 million barrels per day during the first quarter, increase to 1.06 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and fall to 1.05 million barrels per day in the third and fourth quarters.

Ethanol consumption is currently expected to average 950,000 barrels per day in both 2019 and 2020, up from 940,000 barrels per day in 2018.

The EIA’s most recent production data shows ethanol production reached 1.096 million barrels per day the week ending June 7, up from 1.044 million barrels per day the prior week.

Ethanol stocks fell to 21.802 million barrels the week ending June 7, down from 22.553 million barrels the previous week.

The EIA’s most recent weekly data shows the U.S imported 251,000 barrels of ethanol in March, all from Brazil. The U.S. exported 3.335 million barrels of ethanol in March, primarily to Brazil, Canada and India.