WASDE: Corn production, corn use in ethanol forecast down

By Erin Voegele | September 12, 2019

The USDA lowered its 2019-’20 forecast for corn use in ethanol by 25 million bushels in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, released Sept. 12. The forecast for corn production was also lowered, with ending stocks expected to be up slightly.

Corn production is now forecast at 13.799 billion bushels, down 102 million from August on a lower yield forecast. Corn supplies are also down from last month, as a smaller crop more than offsets larger beginning stocks due to lower estimated exports and corn used in ethanol for 2018-’19.

The forecast for used for ethanol for 2019-’20 has been reduced by 25 million bushel to 5.45 billion. Estimated corn usage in ethanol for 2018-’19 is 5.375 billion bushels, down from 5.605 billion bushels in 2017-’18.

With use falling more than supply, the USDA has revised corn ending stocks up 9 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $3.60 per bushel.

According to the report, Ukraine corn production is lowered, as dry conditions during the month of August reduce yield prospects for filling corn. EU corn production is unchanged, as reductions for France and Germany offset increases for Bulgaria and Romania.

For 2018-19, corn exports for Brazil are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2019, based on record large shipments during the month of August. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2019-’20 are lower relative to last month, mostly reflecting declines for Brazil, Ukraine, Mexico, Paraguay and Chile.