EIA maintains 2019, 2020 ethanol production forecasts

By Erin Voegele | November 13, 2019

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has maintained its 2019 and 2020 ethanol production forecasts its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, published Nov. 13. The agency currently predicts ethanol production will average 1.03 million barrels per day in both 2019 and 2020. Ethanol production averaged 1.05 million barrels per day in 2018.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to reach 1.03 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter of 2019, falling to 1.02 million barrels per day during the first quarter of next year. Production is expected to expand to 1.04 million barrels per day during the second quarter of 2020, fall to 1.03 million barrels per day during the third quarter, and return to 1.04 million barrels per day during the final quarter of next year.

The EIA currently predicts 2019 and 2020 U.S. ethanol consumption will average 940,000 barrels per day, flat with 2018.

The EIA’s most recent weekly data shows ethanol production increased to 1.014 million barrels per day the week ending Nov. 1, up from 1.004 million barrels per day the previous week. Weekly U.S. ending stocks of fuel ethanol increased to 21.874 million barrels the week ending Nov. 1, up from 21.099 million barrels the previous week.

The agency’s most recent monthly data shows the U.S. imported only 579,000 barrels of ethanol in August, all from Brazil. During the same month, the U.S. exported 2.921 million barrels of ethanol, primarily to Canada, India and Brazil.