EIA predicts flat ethanol production through 2021

By Lisa Gibson | February 12, 2020

The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its prediction for 2020 ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb. 11

Fuel ethanol production estimates for 2019, 2020 and 2021 sit at 1.03 million barrels per day, with fuel blended into motor gasoline for 2020 at a predicted 950,000 barrels per day, in line with 2019’s estimate of 950,000. Blending in 2021 is predicted to decrease slightly to 940,000 barrels per day, according to the STEO.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 1.03 million barrels per day in quarter one, down from 1.04 million in quarter four of 2019. Quarter two of 2020 is expected to average 1.04 million barrels per day, falling to 1.02 million in quarter three and increasing again to 1.03 million in quarter 4.

Quarterly blending predictions for 2020 in the STEO are 910,000 barrels for quarter one, down from 980,000 in quarter four of 2019. Quarters two and three predictions are 960,000, decreasing to 940,000 in quarter four.

Weekly EIA data show ethanol production the week ending Feb. 7 was at 1.033 million barrels per day, down from the previous week’s 1.081 million.