EIA maintains 2021 ethanol production forecast

By Erin Voegele | February 10, 2021

The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its forecast for 2022 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb. 9. The forecast for 2021 ethanol production, however, was maintained.

The EIA currently predicts ethanol production will average 980,000 barrels per day this year, up from 900,000 barrels per day in 2020. In 2022, the agency currently predicts ethanol production will increase to 1.01 million barrels per day, down slightly from the 1.02-million-barrel-per-day prediction made in the January STEO.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is expected to average 940,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2021, increasing to 960,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, 1 million barrels per day in the third quarte rand 1.01 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Production is expected to fall to 1 million barrels per day during the first quarter of 2022, before increasing to 1.01 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 1.02 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.03 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Ethanol consumption is expected to average 880,000 barrels per day in 2021, up from 820,000 barrels per day in 2020. In 2022, consumption is expected to increase to 910,000 barrels per day.

A full copy of the EIA’s February STEO can be downloaded from the agency’s website