EIA maintains 2021, 2022 ethanol production forecasts

By Erin Voegele | April 06, 2021

The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its 2021 and 2022 ethanol production and consumption forecasts in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released April 6. Total gasoline consumption for the summer driving season is expected to be up 13.2 percent when compared to last summer.

The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 960,000 barrels per day this year, up from 910,000 barrels per day in 2020. Production is expected to increase to 990,000 barrels per day in 2022. Both figures were maintained when compared to forecasts made in EIA’s March STEO.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production averaged 910,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of this year. Production is expected to average 990,000 barrels per day during the second quarter, 980,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, and 970,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Production is expected to be at 970,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of 2022, increasing to 990,000 barrels per day in the second and third quarters and reaching 1 million barrels per day during the final quarter of 2022.

Fuel ethanol consumption is expected to average 880,000 barrels per day this year, up from 820,000 barrels per day in 2020. Consumption is expected to increase to 910,000 barrels per day next year.

The EIA’s April STEO also includes the agency’s summer outlook for U.S. motor gasoline. Gasoline consumption is expected to average 8.844 million barrels per day this summer, up 13.2 percent when compared to the 7.811 barrels per day of consumption reported for 2020.

Ethanol blending for the summer driving season is expected to be at 898,000 barrels per day, up 12.6 percent when compared to the 797,000 barrels per day of blending reported for the summer of 2020.

A full copy of the April STEO can be downloaded from the EIA’s website.