EIA maintains forecast for 2022 ethanol production

By Erin Voegele | November 09, 2021

The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its forecast for 2021 ethanol production, but slightly reduced its production forecast for next year in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Nov. 9. The forecast for fuel ethanol blending was maintained for 2022 but increased slightly for 2021.

The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1 million barrels per day in 2022, down from a forecast of 1.01 million barrels per day made in October. The agency maintained its forecast for 2021 ethanol production at 970,000 barrels per day. Production averaged 910,000 barrels per day in 2020.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1.01 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter of this year. Production is expected to fall to 970,000 barrels per day for the first quarter of 2022, increase to 1 million barrels per day in the second quarter and 1.02 million barrels per day in the third quarter, before returning to 1.01 million barrels per day in the final quarter of next year.

Fuel ethanol blending is expected to average 920,000 barrels per day in 2022, a forecast maintained from last month. The EIA increased its forecast for 2021 blending to 900,000 barrels per day, up from the 890,000 barrel per day forecast made in October. Ethanol blending was at 820,000 barrels per day in 2020.