EIA increases forecasts for 2022 ethanol production, blending

By Erin Voegele | January 11, 2022

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2022 U.S. fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Jan. 11. The outlook for ethanol blending in 2022 was also increased.

The EIA currently predicts that U.S. fuel ethanol production will average 1.02 million barrels per day in both 2022 and 2023, up from an estimated 980,000 barrels per day in 2021. In its December STEO, the agency predicted that 2022 fuel ethanol production would average 1.01 million barrels per day, up from an expected 970,000 barrels per day in 2021. The predictions for 2022 and 2023 production are significantly higher than the 910,000 barrels per day of production reported for 2020, but lower than the 1.03 million barrels per day of production reported for 2019.

Fuel ethanol blending is currently expected to average 930,000 barrels per day in 2022, increasing to 950,000 barrels per day in 2023. Fuel ethanol blending averaged an estimated 910,000 barrels per day in 2021. In December, the EIA predicted 2022 ethanol blending would average 920,000 barrels per day, up from an expected 900,000 barrels per day for 2021. Ethanol blending averaged only 820,000 barrels per day in 2020. The EIA said the increased forecast in ethanol consumption included in the January STEO reflects the agency’s expectation of increasing gasoline demand. At the forecasted levels for 2022 and 2023, the EIA said the ethanol share of gasoline consumption would be near the 2020 and 2021 levels of 10.3 percent.