USDA now pegs corn yield at 122 bushels per acre

By Susanne Retka Schill | October 11, 2012

Higher corn yields in Minnesota and North Dakota didn’t make up for lower yields than what was previously forecast for Illinois, causing USDA to adjust its projected national average corn yield down 0.8 bushels to 122.0 bushels per acre.

Total U.S. feed grain supplies for 2012-’13 are projected lower with reduced carryin and production this month. Corn beginning stocks for 2012-’13 are lowered 193 million bushels based on the Sept. 1 stocks estimate. Sorghum beginning stocks are lowered 4 million bushels also on the Sept. 1 stocks.

Forecast corn production for 2012-’13 is lowered 21 million bushels with higher area more than offset by lower yields. Forecast sorghum production is raised 6 million bushels with higher yields for Texas and Arkansas. For 2012-’13, corn supplies are projected 214 million bushels lower and sorghum supplies are projected 2 million bushels higher.

U.S. corn use for 2012-’13 is lowered with a 100-million-bushel reduction in projected exports. Ethanol use is unchanged from the previous month’s report at 4.5 billion bushels. Corn exports are lowered based on the slow pace of sales to date and strong competition from Brazil. Corn ending stocks for 2012-’13 are projected 114 million bushels lower at 619 million. Projected ending stocks are raised slightly for sorghum, but lowered for oats. Barley ending stocks are projected 19 million bushels higher reflecting a 25-million-bushel reduction in expected feed and residual use based on indications from the September 1 stocks. The season-average farm price for corn is lowered 10 cents on both ends of the range to $7.10 to $8.50 per bushel based on early season cash and futures prices and prices available for forward delivery through early 2013.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012-’13 are projected 11 million tons lower mostly reflecting reduced corn beginning stocks in the United States and Brazil. Brazil beginning stocks are lowered with 2011-’12 exports increased 4.5 million tons. Global corn production for 2012-’13 is lowered 2 million tons with reductions for EU-27, Serbia, and the United States. Global sorghum production is raised 0.7 million tons with small increases for Australia, the United States, and several African countries.

Global 2012-’13 corn exports are lowered 1.1 million tons this month with the U.S. reduction partly offset by a 1.0-million-ton increase for Brazil and a 0.5-million-ton increase for India. Imports for EU-27 are raised 2.0 million tons with the smaller crop. Global corn feeding is down 1.4 million tons. Corn and sorghum food use is raised this month for several African countries where these grains remain a staple food. Global barley feeding is lowered with reductions for Australia, Canada, EU-27, and the United States. Barley feeding is raised for Saudi Arabia. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2012-’13 are lowered with projected corn ending stocks down 6.7 million tons on reductions for Brazil and the United States.