WASDE: Offsetting adjustments leave corn ending stocks unchanged

By Susanne Retka Schill | March 08, 2013

Corn imports are up and exports down, supporting higher expected feed and residual disappearance, according to the March 8 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate report. The offsetting adjustments means USDA leaves its projection for U.S. corn ending stocks for the 2012-’13 marketing year unchanged from the previous month’s projections. With drought-reduced corn supplies, the market is watching those changes to the U.S. stocks closely, along with any changes to global supplies.

Corn imports are raised 25 million bushels reflecting the strong pace of shipments reported through January. Corn exports are lowered 75 million bushels based on the slow pace of sales and shipments to date and stronger expected competition from South American corn and from competitively priced feed-quality wheat. Feed and residual disappearance for corn is raised an offsetting 100 million bushels with continued expansion in poultry production and a 10-million-bushel reduction in projected sorghum feed and residual use.

Sorghum exports are projected 10 million bushels higher based on the strong pace of sales and shipments. Ethanol use projections are unchanged at 4.5 billion bushels, compared to 4.55 billion bushels estimated for the 2011-’12 marketing year and 5.02 billion in 2010-’11.

The projected season-average farm prices for corn and sorghum are each lowered 20 cents on the high end of the range to $6.75 to $7.45 per bushel and $6.70 to $7.40 per

bushel, respectively.

Global coarse grain supplies for 2012-’13 are projected 1.0 million tons lower with a 0.8-million-ton decrease in production. Corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Argentina reflecting extended dryness in February that reduced yield prospects, particularly for late-planted corn. South Africa corn production is reduced 0.5 million tons as dryness and heat reduce yield prospects in the western areas of the maize belt.

Sorghum production is lowered 0.5 million tons for Australia as excessively high temperatures have reduced harvested area as indicated by the latest government estimates and yield prospects as confirmed by satellite imagery. India corn production is raised 0.4 million tons as planting progress reports for the winter crop indicate a year-to-year increase in area.


Global coarse grain exports for 2012-’13 are lowered this month mostly reflecting the projected reduction in U.S. corn exports. World corn feed and residual use is raised with higher expected use in the United States. Corn feed use is also raised for India and Malaysia. Corn imports and feeding are lowered for South Korea with higher expected imports of feed quality wheat and increased wheat feeding. Sorghum imports and feeding are raised for Mexico with the increase in U.S. sorghum exports. Global coarse grain ending stocks decline 0.6 million tons with small reductions in corn stocks for Brazil, Malaysia, Argentina, and India.

Global coarse grain supply, which includes corn, sorghum, oats and barley, is a projected total 968.35 million metric tons. Of that total, the U.S. 2012-’13 marketing year corn production is projected to make up 285.8 million metric tons.