IEA predicts global growth in ethanol production

The International Energy Agency has released its second annual Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report (MTRMR), predicting that world biofuel production will increase from 1.86 million barrels per day in 2012, to 2.36 million barrels per day in 2018, accounting for 4 percent of global road transport fuel demand.

Ethanol is expected to remain the dominant biofuel in 2018, with 1.81 million barrels per day of production. The production of advanced biofuels is expected to increase from 77,000 barrels per day in 2012 to 156,000 barrels per day in 2018.

The MTRMR report notes that global biofuels production stalled in 2012, with production actually declining in several countries. For example, U.S. output reduced by 42,000 barrels per day compared to the year prior. Decline was also experienced in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries of Europe. However, production actually increased in Brazil by 20,000 barrels per day compared to 2011.

In the U.S., the IEA predicts ethanol production will reach 853,000 barrels per day in 2013, increasing to 979,000 barrels per day by 2018. The report notes that while the U.S. is expected to remain the world’s largest biofuel producer in terms of absolute volume, it’s share in global production will fall from 50 percent in 2012 to 45 percent in 2018.

In Brazil, ethanol production is expected to reach 436,000 barrels per day this year, increasing to approximately 586,000 barrels per day by 2018. Ethanol production in Europe was 67,000 barrels per day in 2012, and is projected to grow to 100,000 barrels per day in 2018.

According to the report, China is the largest ethanol-producing nation in Asia, with 41,000 barrels per day of production last year. All non-OECD Asian countries (excluding China) produced a combined 27,000 barrels per day of ethanol last year. Over the medium term, ethanol production on non-OECD Asia is expected to nearly double, reaching 52,000 barrels per day in 2018.