EIA revises 2018, 2019 ethanol production forecasts in May STEO

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has released the May edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook, slightly altering its ethanol production forecasts for 2018 and 2019.

The EIA currently predicts ethanol production will average 1.04 million barrels per day in both 2018 and 2019. In its April STEO, the EIA predicted ethanol production would average 1.03 million barrels per day this year and 1.05 million barrels per day next year.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA predicts ethanol production will average 1.03 million barrels per day during the second, third and fourth quarters of this year, down from 1.05 million barrels per day during the first quarter. In 2019, ethanol production is expected to average 1.03 million barrels per day in the first quarter, increasing to 1.04 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 1.05 million barrels per day in the third and fourth quarters.

Fuel ethanol consumption is expected to reach 950,000 barrels per day this year, increasing to 960,000 barrels per day next year. In 2017, consumption averaged 940,000 barrels per day.

The EIA’s most recent weekly ethanol production data shows production averaged 1.04 million barrels per day the week ending May 4, up from 1.032 million barrels per day the previous week.

The EIA’s most recent monthly data shows the U.S. imported 496,000 barrels of ethanol in November, all from Brazil. The U.S. exported 5.298 million barrels of ethanol in February, primarily to Brazil, China, and Canada.