USDA: WASDE maintains forecast for corn use in ethanol

By Erin Voegele | December 09, 2021

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2021-’22 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Dec. 9. The 2021-’22 outlooks for corn supply, use and season-average farm price were also unchanged.

The USDA estimates 93.3 million acres of corn were planted for 2021-’22, with 85.1 million expected to be harvested. Yield per planted area is forecast at 177 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks are at 1.236 billion bushels, with production at 15.062 billion. Feed and residual use is forecast at 16.323 billion bushels. Exports are forecast at 2.5 billion bushels, with total use at 14.83 billion bushels, and ending stocks at 1.493 billion bushels. The season-average farm price for corn is $5.45 per bushel. All figures were maintained from the November WASDE.

The USDA predicts 5.25 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production for 2021-’22, up from 5.028 million bushels in 2020-’21. Approximately 4.857 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2019-’20.

Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for the EU and Ukraine more than offset a reduction for China. EU corn production is raised reflecting increases for France, Romania and Poland. Ukraine corn production is higher based on harvested results to date. China corn production is reduced reflecting the latest information published by the National Bureau of Statistics which indicated higher area that was more than offset by a reduction in yield.

Corn exports are raised for Ukraine and the EU. Imports are raised for Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom, but lowered for Israel. For 2020-‘21, corn exports for Brazil are raised for the local marketing year beginning March 2021, based on higher-than expected shipments through the month of November. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, the EU, Mexico, and Iran that are partly offset by a reduction for China.