USDA maintains forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol

By Erin Voegele | June 10, 2022

The USDA maintained its 2022-’23 forecast for corn use in ethanol production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released June 10. The overall corn outlook is for larger beginning stocks, slightly higher use, and increased ending stocks.

The USDA’s forecasts for corn area and yield are unchanged. The agency currently expects 89.5 million acres of corn to be planted in 2022-’23, with area harvested at 81.7 million acres and yield per harvested acre at 177 bushels. The agency said it will release its Acreage report on June 30, which will provide survey-based indications of planted and harvested area.

Beginning stocks are up 45 million bushels, mostly reflecting a forecast decline in exports for 2021-’22. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels, based on reported U.S. Census Bureau shipments through the month of April and export inspection data for the month of May.

The USDA currently predicts 5.375 million bushels of corn will go to ethanol production in 2022-’23, a forecast maintained from the May WASDE. Approximately 5.375 million bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2021-’22, up from 5.033 million bushels in 2020-’21.

Food, seed, and industrial use (FSI) is raised 5 million bushels as projected increases in the amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is partially offset by a decline in high fructose corn syrup. These FSI use changes are carried through for 2022-‘23. With no other 2022-‘23 use changes, ending stocks are raised 40 million bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is unchanged at $6.75 per bushel.

Corn production is raised for Ukraine, reflecting higher area based on data reported by the government. Major global trade changes for 2022-‘23 include larger corn imports for the EU, but reductions for Morocco, Jordan, and Peru. Foreign corn ending stocks are raised relative to last month, mostly on increases for Ukraine and Russia. Global corn ending stocks, at 310.5 million tons, are up 5.3 million from last month.