WASDE: U.S. corn yields rise slightly, production down slightly

By Ann Bailey | October 09, 2015

Total U.S. corn production will be lower than estimated last month, but the average yield of their crop is expected to be slightly higher, according to the agency’s October World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimate.

Farmers will harvest 81.1 million acres of corn, down slightly from the September WASDE estimate of 80.7 million, the October report said. According to the October WASDE, farmers will produce 13.585 billion bushels of corn in 2015, 30 million bushels less than USDA estimated in its September report.

But partially offsetting the projected decrease in U.S. corn acreage is a 0.5 increase in average per acre yields. USDA revised last month’s average yield estimate from 167.5 bushels per acre to 168 bushels in the October report. 

The estimated 2015-’16 beginning corn stocks of 1.732 billion bushels, obtained from the USDA Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report, are nearly unchanged from last month’s projection.

 Small revisions to food, seed, and industrial use and trade, based on the latest data, boosted 2014-‘15 feed and residual use of corn by 17 million bushels. The agency’s October estimate of 11.9 billion of corn used for ethanol and by-products in the October WASDE is unchanged from the September report.

USDA also did not change its 2015-’16 estimate of projected U.S. corn usage of 13.7 billion bushels. Ending stocks, meanwhile, were projected to be 31 million bushels lower and estimated at 1,561 million. The 2015-’16 season-average corn price farm is projected a nickel a bushel higher, from $3.45 to 4.05 per bushel to $3.50 to $4.10 per bushel.

The October WASDE USDA of global coarse grain supplies for 2015-’16 are projected 8.3 million metric tons lower than they were in the September report, mostly as a result of reduced foreign corn beginning stocks and production.

The agency reduce global corn beginning stocks by 1.2 million metric tons, reflecting higher 2014-’15 EU corn feeding and exports and Ukraine exports.

Global WASDE-October corn production estimates for 2015-’16 were reduced by 5.5 million tons with reductions for Ukraine, Argentina, India, Philippines and several Sub-Saharan African countries. Those reductions more than offset an increase in Brazil corn production.