WASDE forecasts corn production up, corn use for ethanol down

By Erin Voegele | September 12, 2017

The USDA has increased the 2017-’18 outlook for corn production in the September edition of its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, noting greater feed and residual use, higher ending stocks and lower prices are also expected.

Corn production is now forecast to reach 14.184 billion bushels, up 32 million bushels when compared to the August WASDE. Corn supplies are also increased from August, as a larger crop more than offsets a small decline in beginning stocks due to updated use estimates for 2016-’17.

Feed and residual use for 2017-’18 is increased 25 million bushels with a larger crop and lower expected prices. Corn use for ethanol during 2017-’18, however, is projected down 25 million bushels, at 5.475 million bushels based on observed usage during 2016-’17 and expectations of lower exports. Other industrial use is lowered 50 million bushels.

Due to increasing supply and falling use, USDA said corn ending stocks are up 62 million bushels when compared to last month’s estimates. The projected range for season-average corn prices received by producers is lowered 10 cents on both ends, to a range of $2.80 to $3.60 per bushel.

Foreign corn production is expected to decline relative to August WASDE predictions, with reductions for Serbia, Ukraine, the European Union and Russia more than offsetting increases for Argentina and Mexico. Foreign corn ending stocks are virtually unchanged from last month’s estimates, with declines for Brazil, Serbia, Ukraine and Russia offset by increases for Argentina and Mexico. Global corn stocks are estimated at 202.5 million tons, up 1.6 million tons when compared to August.