EIA reduces 2019, 2020 ethanol production forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released the latest edition of its Short-Term Energy Outlook May 7 reducing its forecasts for 2019 and 2020 ethanol production. The agency now predicts ethanol production will average 1.03 million barrels per day this year, increasing to 1.04 million barrels per day next year. Ethanol production averaged 1.05 million barrels per day in 2018.

The forecasts for 2019 and 2020 ethanol production have each been reduced by 10,000 barrels per day when compared to the forecast included in the EIA’s April STEO, which predicted ethanol production would average 1.04 million barrels per day this year, increasing to 1.05 million barrels per day in 2020.

On a quarterly basis, the EPA currently predicts ethanol production will average 1.05 million barrels per day during the second quarter of 2019, up from 1.01 million barrels per day during the first quarter. Production is expected to fall to 1.03 million barrels per day in the third quarter increasing to 1.04 million barrels per day during the final quarter of the year.  For 2019, production is currently expected to average 1.03 million barrels per day during the first quarter, increasing to 1.05 million barrels per day during the second and third quarters, and fall to 1.04 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter.

The EIA has maintained its forecasts for 2019 and 2020 ethanol consumption at 950,000 barrels per day in each year, up from 940,000 barrels per day in 2018.

The EIA’s most recent weekly data shows ethanol production reached 1.036 million barrels per day the week ending May 3, up from 1.024 million barrels per day the previous week.

Ethanol ending stocks fell to 22.468 million barrels the week ending May 3, down from 22.695 million barrels the previous week.