EIA reduces forecasts for 2021, 2022 ethanol production

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its ethanol production forecasts for both 2021 and 2022 in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released March 9. The forecasts for ethanol consumption were also lowered.

The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 960,000 barrels per day in 2021, up from an average of 910,000 barrels per day in 2020, but below the 980,000 barrels per day the agency predicted in its February STEO. Ethanol production in 2022 is currently expected to average 990,000 barrels per day, down from the forecast of 1.02 million barrels per day made last month.

On a quarterly basis, ethanol production is currently expected to average 900,000 barrels per day during the first quarter of this year, increasing to 950,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, and reaching 990,000 barrels per day in the third and fourth quarters. Moving into 2022, production is expected to average 980,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, increasing to 990,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.01 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Ethanol consumption is currently expected to be average 880,000 barrels per day in 2021, up from 820,000 barrels per day last year. Consumption is currently expected to increase to 910,000 barrels per day next year. In its February STEO, the EIA predicted that ethanol consumption would average 887,000 barrels per day in 2021 and 917,000 barrels per day in 2022.