USDA increases forecast for corn use in ethanol

By Erin Voegele | November 09, 2021

The USDA increased its forecast for 2021-’22 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Nov. 9. The agency is also predicting a record corn yield of 177 bushels per acre.

The USDA’s November 2021-’22 corn outlook is for greater production, increased corn use for ethanol and marginally lower ending stocks, the agency said in the report.

Corn production is forecast at 15.062 billion bushels, up 43 million from last month on a 0.5-bushel increase in yield to a record 177 bushels per acre.

Corn used for ethanol is raised 50 million bushels to 5.25 billion bushels based on September data from the Grain Crushings and Co-Products Production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration for the month of October.

The USDA slightly revised down its estimate for 2020-’21 corn use in ethanol to 5.028 billion bushels, down from October’s estimated 5.032 billion. Corn use for ethanol production was at 4.857 billion bushels for 2019-’20.

With use rising slightly more than supply for 2021-’22, the USDA has lowered its forecast for corn ending stocks by 7 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $5.45 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2021-’22 is forecast 5.1 million tons higher to 1.499 billion. This month’s 2021-’22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, and higher stocks relative last month.

Foreign corn production is forecast higher as increases for Argentina, the EU, and several African countries more than offset a decline for the Philippines. For Argentina, production is raised mostly reflecting increased area expectations for late-planted corn. Corn production in the EU is higher based on increases for Poland, Romania and France.

Corn exports are raised for Argentina and the EU but lowered for Bangladesh. Corn imports are raised for Iran and Thailand but lowered for Nigeria and Turkey. For 2020-’21, corn exports for Argentina are raised by reduced for Brazil for the local marketing year beginning March 2021 based on shipments observed through October.

Foreign corn ending stocks are higher relative to last month, reflecting increases for China, Brazil, Burkina Faso, and Angola. Global corn ending stocks, at 304.4 million tons, are up 2.7 million.