EIA increases fuel ethanol production forecast for 2022

By Erin Voegele | February 08, 2022

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecast for 2022 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Feb. 8. The forecast for 2023 ethanol production was maintained.

The EIA currently expects U.S. ethanol production to average 1.03 million barrels per day this year, up from the 1.02 million barrels per day forecast made in January. Ethanol production is expected to average 1.02 million barrels per day next year. According to the EIA, U.S. ethanol production averaged 980,000 barrels per day in 2021.

On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1 million barrels per day during the first quarter of this year, increasing to 1.02 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1.03 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.05 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. In 2023, ethanol production is expected to average 1 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 1.03 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1.02 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.05 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Fuel ethanol blending averaged 910,000 barrels per day in 2021 and is expected to expand to 920,000 barrels per day in 2022 and 930,000 barrels per day in 2023.

The EIA predicts that net fuel ethanol imports will average -0.1 million barrels per day in 2022 and -0.09 million barrels per day in 2023, compared to -0.08 million barrels per day in 2021.

Fuel ethanol stocks at the end of 2021 were at 21.6 million barrels. The EIA currently predicts stocks will expand to 24.9 million barrels by the end of 2022 and 25.7 million barrels by the end of 2023.