USDA maintains 2021-’22 forecast for corn use in ethanol

By Erin Voegele | February 09, 2022

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2021-’22 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Feb. 9. The forecasts for 2021-’22 U.S. corn supply, use and price were also unchanged.

U.S. corn production for 2021-’22 is projected at 15.115 billion bushels, up from an estimated 14.111 billion bushels in 2020-’21 and 13.62 billion bushels in 2019-’20. Yield per harvested acre forecast at 177 bushels, up from 171.4 bushels in 2020-’21 and 167.5 bushels in 2019-’20. Area harvested for 2021-’22 is projected at 85.4 million acres, up from 82.3 million acres in 2020-’21 and 81.3 million acres in 2019-’20.

The USDA expects 5.325 billion bushels of corn to go to ethanol production for 2021-’22, up from an estimated 5.028 billion bushels in 2020-’21 and 4.857 billion bushels in 2019-’20.

The season average farm price for 2021-’22 remains at $5.45 per bushel.

The global outlook for corn production is lower, reflecting declines for Brazil and Paraguay that are partially offset by an increase for the Philippines. Brazil corn production is reduced based on lower yield expectations for first crop corn. Paraguay corn production is down as extreme heat and dryness sharply reduce yield prospects.

The USDA expects lower corn exports for Paraguay for 2021-’22, with corn imports raised for Iran and Canada. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting a forecast reduction for Brazil that is partly offset by an increase for Argentina. Global corn stocks, at 302.2 million tons, are down 900,000.