EIA maintains 2022, 2023 ethanol production, blending forecasts

By Erin Voegele | April 13, 2022

The U.S. Energy Information Administration maintained its 2022 and 2023 forecasts for fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released April 12. The forecasts for fuel ethanol blending were also unchanged.

The EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.01 million barrels per day this year, falling to 1 million barrels per day in 2023. Production averaged 980,000 barrels per day in 2021.

On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 990,000 barrels per day during the second quarter of 2022, expanding to 1.01 million barrels per day during the second half of the year. Moving into 2023, production is expected to average 980,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, 1.01 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.03 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Fuel ethanol blending is currently expected to average 920,000 barrels per day in both 2022 and 2023, up from 910,000 barrels per day last year.

The April STEO also includes the EIA’s summer gasoline outlook, which predicts fuel ethanol blending will average 929,000 barrels per day during the summer 2022 driving season, down approximately 1 percent when compared to the 935,000 barrels per day blended last summer.