EIA maintains forecast for 2023 ethanol production

By Erin Voegele | June 08, 2022

The U.S. Energy Information Administration slightly reduced its forecast for 2022 fuel ethanol in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released June 7. The agency’s forecast for fuel ethanol production in 2023 was maintained, while the forecasts for 2022 and 2023 ethanol blending were lowered.

The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1 million barrels per day in 2022, down from the agency’s May forecast of 1.01 million barrels per day. Ethanol production is currently expected to average 990,000 barrels per day in 2023, a forecast maintained from the May STEO. Ethanol production averaged 980,000 barrels per day in 2021.

On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 980,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of this year, increasing to 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.01 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. In 2023, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 980,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, 990,000 barrels per day in the second and third quarters, and 1.01 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The EIA currently expects ethanol blending to average 910,000 barrels per day in 2022 and 2023, down from a prediction of 920,000 barrels per day included in the May STEO. Ethanol blending averaged 910,000 barrels per day in 2021.