USDA maintains 2020-’23 forecast for corn use in ethanol

By Erin Voegele | July 12, 2022

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released July 12. The 2022-’23 corn outlook is for increased supplies and higher ending stocks.

The USDA beginning stocks are raised 25 million bushels, to 1.51 billion bushels, based on reduced feed and residual use for 2021-’22 as indicated in the agency’s June 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production for 2022-’23 is forecast 45 million bushels higher, at 14.505 billion bushels, based on greater planted and harvested area from the June 30 Acreage report. Projected yield is unchanged at 177 bushels per acre.

The USDA maintained its June forecast that 5.375 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production in 2022-’23, flat with 2022-’21. Approximately 5.033 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production in 2020-’21. The USDA also maintained its June forecasts for feed and residual use, along with food, seed and industrial use.

With no use changes, ending stocks are up 70 million bushels, to 1.47 billion bushels. The season-average farm price received by producers is lowered 10 cents to $6.65 per bushel.

The USDA’s forecast for foreign corn production is down, with reductions for Russia, the European Union and Kenya, partially offset by an increase for Paraguay. Russia corn production is lowered reflecting a cut in area. EU corn production is reduced with a forecast decline for Italy. For 2021-’22, corn production is raised for Paraguay with increases to both area and yield.

Major global trade changes for 2022-’23 include larger corn exports for Paraguay with a reduction for Russia. Corn imports are raised for Zimbabwe. Foreign corn ending stocks are up marginally relative to last month. Global corn stocks, at 313 million tons, are up 2.5 million tons relative to last month.