EIA maintains 2023 ethanol production forecast

By Erin Voegele | September 07, 2022

The U.S. Energy Information Administration slightly reduced its forecast for 2022 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Sept. 7. The forecast for 2023 fuel ethanol production was maintained.

The EIA currently predicts ethanol production will average 1.01 million barrels per day in 2022, down from the August forecast of 1.02 million barrels per day. The agency currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1 million barrels per day next year, a forecast maintained from the August STEO. Ethanol production averaged 980,000 barrels per day in 2021.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA expects ethanol production to average 1.01 million barrels per day during the third quarter of 2022, increasing to 1.02 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2023, ethanol production is expected to average 1 million barrels per day in the first and second quarters, falling to 990,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, and expanding to 1.02 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Fuel ethanol blending is expected to average 910,000 barrels per day in 2022, expanding to 920,000 barrels per day in 2023. Both forecasts were maintained from the August STEO. Fuel ethanol blending was at 910,000 barrels per day in 2021.