EIA increases 2023, 2024 ethanol production, blending forecasts

The U.S. Energy Information Administration increased its forecasts for both 2023 and 2024 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released March 7. The forecast for ethanol blending was also increased.

The agency currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1 million barrels per day this year, up from the February forecast of 990,000 barrels per day. The EIA also increased its forecast for 2024 fuel ethanol production to 1.02 million barrels per day, up from last month’s estimate of 1 million barrels per day.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA currently predicts that fuel ethanol production will average 1 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2023, 1.01 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 980,000 barrels per day in the third quarter and 1.02 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2024, the agency predicts ethanol production will average 1.01 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 1.02 million barrels per day in the second quarter, 1 million barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1.03 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

Fuel ethanol blending is currently expected to average 930,000 barrels per day in 2023 and 940,000 barrels per day in 2024, up from the respective February forecasts of 910,000 barrels per day and 920,000 barrels per day. Fuel ethanol blending averaged 910,000 barrels per day last year.