USDA maintains forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol production in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand estimates report, released March 8. The agency also lowered its forecast for season-average corn prices.  

The USDA’s current 2022-’23 U.S. corn outlook is for lower exports and larger ending stocks. Exported are reduced 75 million bushels reflecting the poor pace of sales and shipments to date despite relatively competitive U.S. prices. With no other use changes, ending stocks are up 75 million bushels from last month.

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol at 5.25 billion bushels, compared to 5.326 billion bushels in 2021-’22 and 5.028 billion bushels in 2020-’21.

Globally, the outlook for foreign corn production is down, with a decline for Argentina partially offset by increase for India and Paraguay. For Argentina, production is cut as continued heat and dryness during February and into early March reduce yield prospects for late-planted corn. India corn production is higher based on official government data. 

Major global trade changes for 2022-’23 include higher projected corn exports for India, Ukraine and Paraguay with reductions for Argentina and the U.S. Corn imports are lowered for Turkey, Iran, Malaysia, Chile, Colombia, Egypt, Morocco, Peru, and Taiwan. Foreign corn ending stocks are down relative to last month, reflecting declines for Ukraine and Brazil that are partly offset by an increase for India. Global corn ending stocks, at 296.5 million tons, are up 1.2 million.