EIA lowers its forecasts for 2022, 2023 fuel ethanol production

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its forecasts for both 2022 and 2023 fuel ethanol production in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Oct. 12. The forecast for 2023 fuel ethanol blending was also lowered.

The EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 1 million barrels per day this year, down slightly from the 1.01 million barrel per day forecast made in September. The agency also reduced its forecast for 2023 ethanol production to 980,000 barrels per day, down from a forecast of 1 million barrels per day made in the September STEO. Ethanol production averaged 980,000 barrels per day last year.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.01 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year. Moving into 2023, the agency predicts fuel ethanol production will average 970,000 barrels per day in the first quarter, 980,000 barrels per day in the second quarter, 960,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, and 1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter.

The EIA maintained its forecast that fuel ethanol blending will average 910,000 barrels per day in 2022. The agency, however, revised down its forecast for 2023 fuel ethanol blending to 910,000 barrels per day, down from the September forecast of 920,000 barrels per day. Fuel ethanol blending averaged 910,000 barrels per day in 2021.