USDA maintains forecast for corn use in ethanol

By Erin Voegele | November 09, 2022

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Nov. 9. The forecasts for corn production and ending stocks were raised.

Corn production is forecast at 13.93 billion bushels, up 35 million from last month on a 0.4-bushel increase in yield to 172.3 bushels per acre. Feed and residual use is revised higher based on a larger crop. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are raised 10 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is unchanged at $6.80 per bushel.

The USDA maintained its forecast for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol at 5.275 billion bushels. The estimate for 2021-’22 corn use in ethanol was revised down slightly, from 5.328 billion bushels last month to 5.326 billion bushels. Corn use in ethanol for 2020-'21 was at 5.028 billion bushels.

Foreign corn production is forecast lower with declines for the European Union, South Africa, Philippines and Nigeria partly offset by increases for Angola, Mali, Pakistan, Turkey and Senegal. Corn production in the EU is down based on a decline for Hungary. South Africa is reduced based on lower expected area.

Major global trade changes include lower corn exports for South Africa. Corn imports are reduced for Vietnam, Algeria and Turkey. For 2021-’22, corn exports for Argentina are cut for the local marketing year beginning March 2022, based on shipments observed through October. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting declines for Nigeria and South Africa that are partly offset by an increase for Vietnam. Global corn ending stocks at 300.8 million tons, are down 400,000 tons.