EIA maintains forecasts for 2023 ethanol production, blending

By Erin Voegele | January 10, 2023

The U.S. Energy Information Administration has maintained its forecast for 2023 fuel ethanol production and blending its latest Short Term Energy Outlook, released Jan. 10. The January STEO also includes the agency’s first short-term 2024 forecasts, predicting a slight increase in both ethanol production and consumption.

Fuel ethanol production is expected to average 990,000 barrels per day in 2023, increasing to 1.01 million barrels per day in 2024. Ethanol production averaged 1 million barrels per day in 2022.

On a quarterly basis, the EIA currently predicts fuel ethanol production will average 990,000 barrels per day in the first and second quarters of this year, falling to 980,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, and increasing to 1.01 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2024, production is expected to average 1 million barrels per day in the first and second quarters, falling to 990,000 barrels per day in the third quarter, and increasing to 1.03 million barrels per day in the third quarter.

Fuel ethanol blending is expected to average 910,000 barrels per day in 2023, a forecast maintained from the December STEO, but increase to 920,000 barrels per day in 2024. Fuel ethanol blending averaged 910,000 barrels per day in 2022.